3rd annual MLB predictions!

Hello and welcome back for another Major League Baseball preview and predictions post! Feel free to take these thoughts with you to your local sportsbook, just remember I'm the guy who predicted the Seattle Mariners would win the AL West last year. (In case there is any confusion, they ended up going 61-101. My bad.) My only warning is that I went all out this year, this post is a monster. So plan snacks and bathroom breaks accordingly.

AL East:
1a. Boston Red Sox
1b. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
1c. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

I'm not going to insult your intelligence and pick a definitive order of finish for the Sox, Yanks and Rays because, really, you can make a really good argument for all of them. I will, however, place them in my preferred order. Anyone who thinks they know how this will play out either needs something to write about or wants to stir the pot, so to speak. What I can say definitively, however, is that it's the Red Sox, Yanks and Rays - followed by the rest of the American League. Simple mathematics says that only two of those teams will make the playoffs, which is a shame because the third best team in the league is going to get left out. Such is life in the AL East.

1a) The Red Sox have undergone quite a metamorphosis over the past 15 years. In the mid-to-late 90's, it was an 0ffensive-minded team that lacked enough quality pitching and young talent in the minors. The past 4-5 years the team really shored up the pitching, and combined with a lineup that was still a force, won two World Series, and started pumping out the likes of Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester, Papelbon, Masterson, Lowrie, Ellsbury, etc from the minors. This year, the pitching is solid and deep, but the lineup that showed some weakness after the Manny trade remains largely the same. The laundry list of potential starters is about as good as any in baseball - Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Wakefield, Penny, Buchholz, Smoltz (come June). The bullpen is also about as good as any in baseball - Delcarmen, Masterson, Ramirez, Saito, Okajima, Papelbon. Is all that pitching enough to support the lineup and enough to hold at least one of the Yankees and Rays at bay? We'll see. Biggest obstacles: 1) the health and effectiveness of Penny, Smoltz, Drew, Ortiz, Lowell, Varitek. 2) the AL East war of attrition. Potential upside: World Series champs.

1c) The Yankees went the opposite direction of the Red Sox over the last 15 years. After winning four World Series in the late 90's based largely on pitching and home-grown talent such as Jeter, Pettitte and Rivera, the team became an offensive force that lacked quality pitching and any discernable farm system. Over the last year or so, the Yankees have pulled themselves together (or rather blown everyone else away) with the signings of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixeira. Long term, I don't know that the Sabathia (large and in charge) or Burnett (reputation for injury/pitching best in contract year) are such a good idea, but short term will likely make a huge impact. Unfortunately, I must admit that the Yankees have the upside to be the best team in baseball. Good starting pitching, decent bullpen, good lineup. But... will they? Biggest obstacles: 1) Jeter, Posada, Damon, Matsui show their age 2) distractions and health (I'm looking at you ARod) 3) overall depth 4) the AL East war of attrition. Potential upside: World Series champs

1b) The Rays. No one wanted to believe in them last year until they made it all the way to the World Series. No one wants to believe they can do it again this year because they are young and have to deal with the Red Sox and Yankees re-loading. But the fact of the matter is that they return largely the same team that won 97 games last year. And the only real changes are upgrades - Pat Burrell replaces Cliff Floyd and, at some point, David Price will join the rotation. As such, I think it would be foolish to write them off based on youth. The only aspect of the team I am wary about is the starting pitching. I like Sheilds, Garza and co. I really do. But I thought they overachieved just a little bit last year and am curious to see if they can survive the AL East again this year. Sports Illustrated had an interesting article on defensive ratings, and Tampa Bay successfully overhauled the defense last year, which in turn made the pitching look better. Biggest obstacles: 1) "sophomore slump" 2) pitching depth 3) the AL East war of attrition. Potential upside: World Series champs.

4) Baltimore Orioles. This is a team that I think is starting to get it. They have been horribly run for years, but the rebuilding program under recently new GM Andy MacPhail has the team infused with young talent (Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Weiters, a number of "close" pitching prospects). Getting Markakis to sign long term is a big deal for direction/stability. They definitely aren't close this year - but they look like they are following the Tampa Bay route to success. I could see them making a leap in 2-4 years if they grow or acquire some decent pitching. That being said, it's an extremely young and inexperienced team, and the O's have completely tanked after the all-star break numerous times in the last five years. Potential upside: 4th place, AL East.

5) As Bill Simmons would say, the Toronto Blue Jays were thisclose for a few years. They had a good enough team to hang within 5-6 games of the Red Sox and Yankees, but just not enough depth in the lineup, rotation and/or bullpen to completely put it together. They still have Roy Halladay, really one of the best pitchers in baseball, along with Vernon Wells and hot prospect Travis Snider. But, quite frankly, long term injuries to Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are going to kill any hope they had this year. The rotation is too weak after Halladay without them. The Blue Jays are in for a rough year, I think. Potential upside: 4th place, AL East

AL Central:
1) Minnesota Twins
2) Chicago White Sox
3) Detroit Tigers
4) Cleveland Indians
5) Kansas City Royals

For the life of me, I haven't been able to figure out the AL Central for years. I could see scenarios in which just about any team could win the division, but I think the Twins and White Sox are least likely to fail. So that gives them a leg up, for what it's worth.

1) The Twins have befuddled me for years. I don't really understand why they're as good as they are sometimes, but this year I think they are the most balanced team in the division. The pitching is solid behind Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Perkins and Blackburn. They have one of the best closers in baseball, Joe Nathan, and the lineup is scattered with very good players (Mauer, Morneau) and very good talents (Span, Casilla, Gomez). I like this team, they might top out around 90 wins, but that should be good enough. Joe Mauer can't miss TOO much time, though. Potential upside: 1st place, AL Central, advance to the ALCS.

2) Although I think the White Sox will hang in there and give the Twins a run, I think they have a lot more questions. Mainly age and injury (see: Konerko, Thome, Dye) and the back end of the rotation (see: Colon, Contreras). I think there will be times this year when this team gets hot and you'll be unlucky to play them. I also think there will be times when they are very beatable. If those two modes even out, they'll be a slightly above average team and finish second - but the range of possibility is fairly large here. Potential upside: 1st place, AL Central, 1st round playoff exit

3) The Tigers are the other team I whiffed on pretty badly last year. Luckily so did most others. I still like the lineup, but the pitching will almost certainly do them in again this year. Is Justin Verlander going to go 18-6 like he did two years ago, or 11-17 like he did last year? Are they going to get anything from the back end of the rotation? Is the bullpen going to be terrible again? I think there are some big holes here. Potential upside: 3rd place, AL Central

4) The Indians are as confusing as any other team in this division. One year you think they are stacked and they finish fourth, another year you think they are weak and they nearly advance to the World Series. So what gives? No doubt a lot of talent (Sizemore, Martinez, Lee, Choo) but another team with a lot of questions. Is Cliff Lee that good? What amount of Justin Verlander Syndrome does Fausto Carmona have? Ditto for Travis Hafner. Is it really good for anyone if Carl Pavano is in your rotation as your 3rd starter? Upside potential: 1st place AL Central, 1st round playoff exit. I'm being really generous. I think the upside is better than the Tigers, but my expectations place them 4th.

5) I think if I were a fan of a constantly struggling small market team, I would choose the Royals. Some years you know it's going to be a really long season. Some years, you just don't know what you're going to get. It's been a while since a surprisingly decent 2003 season, but I could see Kansas City playing steadily enough to put up a solid mark this year. Very average across the board, but more consistently average than other teams. Also like youngsters Alex Gordon, Mike Aviles and Zack Grienke. Potential upside: 3rd place, AL Central, pushing .500

AL West:
1) Anaheim Angels
2) Oakland A's
3) Seattle Mariners
4) Texas Rangers

I don't think there's any question this is a two-horse race, and if the Mariners finish first this year, well, then I give up.

1) I mean, what can you say other than the Angels are solid and will most likely win this division again? Lackey (when he gets back), Weaver and Saunders, a good bullpen and a solid lineup will give the team enough balance to make the playoffs again. Do I think the 100 wins last year was inflated by a mediocre division? Yes. But until further notice, they're still the best team. Potential upside: 1st place, AL West, advance to ALCS.

2) The Oakland A's are a team a lot of people are going to be watching for a lot of different reasons. One reason is that they might be good. Adding Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi to a weak lineup, well, it helps at least. I don't know what to make of the pitching, a lot of young guys that I have really barely heard of - but when in doubt, don't doubt Billy Beane and young pitching. However, I don't think the team is going to be THAT good, which leads us to the other reason people are going to be watching - Matt Holliday is a free agent after the year, and if the A's tank, lots of people are going to come calling at the trade deadline. To be perfectly honest with you, I think it was a really interesting move to trade for Holliday, and I think Billy Beane is satisfied with the worst case scenario that the A's aren't far enough along to be good yet and having to trade Holliday. By trading pieces he didn't really want or need that much (Huston Street, Greg Smith, a single A prospect? Colorado got duped), Holliday can easily be moved at the deadline for a better return. So, either your team is vastly improved, or you get a better return on your investment. That's pretty much win-win for the A's. I'd love to ask Billy Beane if all he expected from the deal was to end up with better prospects in the future. Potential upside: 2nd place AL West.

3) No... no love for the Mariners, who embarassed me last year. The only thing they really have going for them is Felix Hernandez and, theoretically, Erik Bedard. The lineup is a strange mess of young, aging, and average talent. Carlos Silva is still in the starting rotation. Honestly, that's probably worse than having to rely on Carl Pavano. 'nuff said. Potential upside: 3rd place, AL West.

4) Ok, so, the Texas Rangers don't seem to get it. Every year, the pitching sucks. If you put the A's and Rangers together, they would probably have made a pretty badass team the past ten years. But the Rangers are always missing the pitching. Not that you don't believe me, but get this - last year, the Rangers scored more runs (901) than any other team in baseball (46 more than the Cubs). And yet, they had a run differential of -66, because they also gave up more runs (967) than any other team in baseball (83 more than the Pirates). That's astoundingly unbalanced, yet they enter 2009 with a rotation of Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Kris Benson, Brandon McCarthy, and Matt Harrison. I mean, really? Potential upside: none.


NL East:
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) NY Mets
3) Atlanta Braves
4) Florida Marlins
5) Washington Nationals

The Nationals aside, this is a surprisingly solid division. Each of the other four teams have a number of things to like, as well as some big holes. I would think the wild card is probably going to come from this division.

1) I've slotted the Phillies to win the division by default, being the defending World Series champs and having won the NL East the past two years. There's a lot to like about the lineup, to which they added Raul Ibanez to Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They have a good closer, ok bullpen, an ace backed by four other pretty average starters. Good, but not great, and I don't doubt that this divisional race will last well into September again. Potential Upside: 1st place, NL East, advance to NLCS.

2) Clearly, the Mets had one huge glaring need at the end of last season when Billy Wagner went down - the bullpen almost certainly cost them a trip to the playoffs. With the additions of Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, you can also most certainly consider that problem fixed. The lineup looks really strong with a top 6 of Reyes-Murphy-Beltran-Delgado-Wright-Sheffield. But... the starting pitching doesn't look good after Johan Santana. I'll give Pelfrey the benefit of the doubt, but Maine was rather poor in spring training and Perez is notoriously inconsistent. Livan Hernandez will eat a lot of innings and give you very average results. Beyond that, if anyone gets hurt there isn't much depth past inexperienced Jon Niese. I guess my big issue is that radically improving your bullpen won't help if you don't give them a lead. Potential upside: 1st place, NL East, advance to World Series.

3) The Braves have a team this year whose success will depend on the collective success of a lot of decent but not superstar talent. The lineup isn't bad, but can Chipper Jones stay healthy? Can Jeff Francouer hit over .240? The bullpen was quite bad last year, but Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano have had very good years before, and if they can both pull it together it will help the team a lot. They don't have an ace, but out of D-Lowe, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Kawakami, Glavine and Campillo, I think they could shake out a rotation that is overall more consistent than that of the Mets and Phillies. And they had an 11-30 record in one-run games last year, which points to a little bit of bad luck (and poor work from the bullpen). That being said, I don't like Javier Vazquez. So he eats a lot of innings and strikes a lot of people out, but he's an exceedingly average pitcher who is likely to win 10-13 games with a 4.00+ ERA, who completely self-destructed last year when Ozzie Guillen challenged him to step up for the White Sox at the end of last year, Chernobyl style. In order to have a good year, the Braves either need the switch to the NL to improve his stats, or for others in the rotation to outperform him and not ask much more than 4th starter stability from him. Anyways, if this team puts it all together, I think they can legitimately sneak out a division title. If not, they could very well finish 4th. Potential upside: 1st place, NL East, 1st round playoff exit.

4) The Marlins are a Braves-esque team that could be pretty good if things fall into place. The Nolasco/Johnson/Volstad/Sanchez/Miller rotation is likely going to be relatively average towards the back end, but it would not in the least surprise me if it turned out to be the strength of the team. The lineup is ok, the bullpen is ok. Most likely they won't break into the top three of the NL East this year, but could surprise. Potential upside: NL wild card berth, 1st round playoff exit.

5) You have to give the Nationals credit, in order to turn things around, you have to start somewhere, and adding a guy like Adam Dunn to the middle of the lineup is something to build on for a really bad team. They desperately need the farm system to produce something though, and haven't shown that they can do much of that yet. Overall the lineup is pretty average but will thump a team from time to time and the pitching staff as a whole is pretty weak. Maybe they can avoid 100 losses this year, but not much more to look forward to past that. Potential upside: last place, NL East.

NL Central:
1) Chicago Cubs
2) St. Louis Cardinals
3) Cincinnati Reds
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Houston Astros
6) Pittsburgh Pirates

1) Did you know that the Cubs haven't been to the postseason three years in a row since their last World Series championship in 1908? Well, here's another crack at heartbreak, Cubs fans. Chicago has a very good team, and although I wouldn't say they are decidedly better than the Mets or Phillies, they will probably finish with the best record in the NL by playing in a weaker division. Good lineup, good starting pitching. The only area of the team that is a little suspect is the bullpen, but Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol and Aaron Heilman could be solid. No excuse for this team to not win any playoff games again this year. Potential upside: 1st place, NL Central, advance to World Series

2) The St. Louis Cardinals are the Minnesota Twins of the National League for me in that they always seem to finish better than you would reason them to. I suppose having Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup has something to do with that. Looks like a solid lineup and if Chris Carpenter has a successful return from injury, this team could definitely push for the wild card. If something derails the Cards, it will be pitching. Potential upside: NL wild card, 1st round playoff exit

3) The Reds are a trendy "surprise team" pick this year and I'm on board with that, though I don't think they'll make the playoffs. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will help improve a kind of weak lineup, but losing Adam Dunn will hurt. It's always about pitching though, and the Reds appear to have the makings of a pretty respectable staff with Volquez/Harang/Arroyo/Cueto/Owings. They might be a year or two away, but the upside is there. Potential upside: NL wild card, 1st round playoff exit

4) I rooted for the Brewers to make the playoffs last year for two reasons: one, the team hadn't made the playoffs since (I think) the 80's, and two, the window for a team like this is only open for a short time. For the Brewers, that time was two years, they cashed in with a playoff appearance once, and it shut with a thud when C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets left. Any team would take a middle of the order of Braun/Fielder/Hart, but after Yovani Gallardo, there's not much to like about the pitching. The rest of the starters are decidedly average and the bullpen looks suspect despite the addition of all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman can only do so much and doesn't generally give a lot of innings (in the last eight years, he's only cracked 60 innings twice - with a high of 63). Can't imagine this team being consistent enough to be a real threat. Potential upside: 3rd place, NL Central

5) It's been pretty much all downhill for the Astros since making a World Series appearance in 2005. Likes? Some components of the lineup - Berkman, Lee, Pence, and a lot of speed at the top if Matsui and Bourn can hit (big if). Dislikes? After Roy Oswalt and Jose Valverde, most of the pitching. And in case you haven't caught on yet, if I don't like the pitching, I generally don't like the team to do well. Turns out Russ Ortiz is only 35, as he makes his first appearance in the major leagues since 2007. It also turns out that he hasn't had an ERA under 5.51 since 2004. 5th starter is a weak spot for most teams, but... Potential upside: maybe 4th place, NL Central.

6) Poor Pirates. I mean, you just sort of start to feel bad for a fan base after a while, don't you? People are avoiding drafting Matt Capps in my fantasy leagues because, even though he's a good pitcher, everyone realizes he isn't going to get a lot of save opportunities. The biggest question here seems to be "where is Nate McClouth getting traded to in the next three years?" Potential upside: none

NL West:
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2) Arizona Diamondbacks
3) San Francisco Giants
4) Colorado Rockies
5) San Diego Padres

This division is up for grabs, as usual, but I think the Giants join the fray as an outside shot. I don't think anyone reaches 90 wins, though.

1) You know I hate to do this, because I want to see Manny fail, but I still think the Dodgers will win the division. There are some variables - mostly can Clayton Kershaw nail down his potential and can Randy Wolf and James McDonald give you anything - but overall the lineup is very good and they are probably better than anyone else in the division. Probably. Potential upside: 1st place, NL West, 1st round playoff exit.

2) There's something to be said for run differential. It sounds pretty obvious when you say "if a team scores a lot more runs than it gives up, it probably has a good record" but last year's Diamondbacks spent most of the year in first place with a negative run differential after an outstanding first month of the season. Not surprisingly, they fell back to the pack, finished 82-80, and missed the playoffs. It's pretty simple with this team - if the young kids all learn how to hit, this could be a very good team. Webb and Haren are a very good top two starters, but the rest of the rotation won't carry a team that doesn't score runs. Potential upside: 1st place, NL West, 1st round playoff exit

3) I honestly thought the Giants were going to lose well over 100 games last year. They weren't good, but 72-90 far exceeded my expectations. Quite frankly, I don't know anything about half the players in the lineup - I think they're decent young players but I also think that means they're not going to be good enough to compete for a division title, but I just don't know. That being said, Lincecum, Cain and a healthy Randy Johnson is about as good a top-3 outside of the AL East as you can find, and if Barry Zito can dig up any resemblence of a major league pitcher (questionable), I can see them hanging around. I would not be surprised if they finished 72-90 again, but I think if any team is going to make a significant jump this year, it might be the Giants. Potential upside: 1st place, NL West, 1st round playoff exit

4) The Rockies probably kissed any real chance they had this year goodbye when they traded Matt Holliday in a classic three nickels for a quarter deal. They've got some good young players and an some ok pitching, but I just don't see it. Potential upside: 3rd place, NL East

5) Poor Padres fans. If they had been able to trade Jake Peavy during the offseason (watch out for this guy at the trade deadline), I don't think the payroll would have broken much more than $40 million. I like five players on this team a lot: Peavy, Chris Young, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell, and Adrian Gonzalez. After that... yikes. Potential upside: none

AL Playoffs: Red Sox vs. Twins, Yankees vs. Angels. Rays most likely other team to make it.
NL Playoffs: Phillies vs. Dodgers, Mets vs. Cubs. Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks possibilities.

Cy Young Awards:
In the AL, I think this is an on year for Josh Beckett and he pulls in his first Cy Young award after coming close two years ago. In the NL, Johan Santana is going to make the leap with a solid bullpen behind him. The only reason he didn't get serious consideration last year was pretty much the result of a bad bullpen blowing 5-6 wins that would have boosted his record significantly.

MVPs:
This is always hard to guess, but for the prediction-post's sake I'll try. In the AL, I'm going with the AL East - Kevin Youkilis, Mark Teixeira, Evan Longoria possibilities. In the NL, I can't see how anyone will pry it away from either Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard.

Let's go Sox!