2008 Baseball predictions

If a baseball game is played at 6am and you don't go to work on time - will your boss notice? That's what every Red Sox fan will wonder when they roll out of bed today and tomorrow!

Here are my yearly predictions. As always, something will be wrong.

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

I know, I know - I said it last year. But THIS WILL BE THE YEAR that Tampa Bay doesn't finish last. I know what you're thinking - you can take the Devil out of Devil Rays, but you can't take the Rays out of last place. But... they've got a pretty good lineup. They cobbled together three reasonable major league starting pitchers (Kazmir, Shields, Garza). They have some semblence of a bullpen (Al Reyes moves into a set up role with Percival taking over as closer). This is the year! Why? Because they're a little better, yet again, and the Orioles... are terrible. As for the important stuff, yes, of course I picked the Red Sox to win the division. They bring back essentially the same team that won it all last year while adding some young talent from the farm system. The Yankees will be good... just not as good. Oh yeah, and I'm completely and utterly biased, so let's move on.

AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals

Alright, so the Tigers pitching is a little shaky after Verlander. Everyone is waiting for Bonderman to win 20 games and it isn't happening. If Dontrelle Willis has an ERA under 6.00 in the AL, the Tigers should consider themselves lucky. The bullpen is ok but not spectacular, and word is that Todd Jones was resurrected from the dead over Easter weekend. But a lot of teams have a staff with an ace and more than a few other questions. What most teams don't have is this:

Curtis Granderson
Placido Polanco
Miguel Cabrera
Magglio Ordonez
Gary Sheffield
Carlos Guillen
Edgar Renteria
Jacque Jones
Ivan Rodriguez

I don't know if that's the exact order, but Randy Jackson would call that "HOT." If I were a pitcher, I would weep openly on the mound. They have a lineup that can win a division, but I don't know if they have a team that can win the World Series (see: late 90's/early 2000's Red Sox and the Yankees the past five years). Anyways, the Indians are good, but not that good. Probably a little better pitching, a little weaker lineup. If they're going to make the playoffs again in a tough AL, they'll need Sabathia and Carmona to duplicate last year, and they really need Hafner to bounce back. As for the rest, I figure Chicago and Minnesota are a coin flip. The Twins went from .500 purgatory down a level of hell by trading Santana, so we'll give the White Sox the edge in a semi-bounce back from a terrible 2007. The Royals will be respectable, but too young and too shaky on the pitching around Meche, Bannister and Soria.

AL WEST
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Anaheim Angels
3. Oakland A's
4. Texas Rangers

I like the Mariners. I thought they were going to pull off a playoff spot last year, and then the pitching imploded in September. So what did they do? Pull off a trade for the other really good lefty on the market (Bedard). Not too shabby. Felix Hernandez is growing up and sounds like he's developing a good head on his shoulders ("I can't show up fat like I did two years ago"). I think they've got next in the AL West. The Angels will be good, but they'll be in trouble if Lackey is out for a while. One of these years, Vladdy Daddy is going to take a huge swing and just fly apart and that will be it. It's coming. They needed to sign ARod to hit behind him. And I just don't like the rest of their starters as much as other people seem to. The Texas Rangers didn't make the playoffs last year because their pitching imploded between April and September (inclusive). So what did they do? Well... they didn't get any pitching. At least they're consistent. Say what you want about Billy Beane, but I trust the moves that the A's made were good enough to keep them respectable and finish third.

AL Playoff possibles: Boston, NY, Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Anaheim
Honorable mention: Toronto

AL Playoff picks: Boston, Detroit, Seattle, Cleveland (what, like you thought I would pick the Yankees? Fine, four spots for five teams, drop the Angels from the list and let the others battle it out.)

NL EAST
1. NY Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Despite the fact that Atlanta is a wanna-be contender, it comes down to the Mets and Phillies. If the Mets hadn't traded for Santana, it would be dead even. But they did. So I'm going with the Mets. The rotation is actually pretty good - when you pick up an ace and bump everyone back a spot, and aren't dependent on a once dominant, injury prone veteran, it's amazing how much better a rotation can look. Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, random 5th guy. That looks a ton better than Pedro, Maine, Perez, random 4th guy, random 5th guy, doesn't it? I think the Phillies have a little better lineup - I love Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard. But the pitching isn't as strong. The over under on games blown by one closer, and then the other, in the same game in this series is +/- 7. As for the rest, the Braves will be pretty good but finish third, and I like how the Nationals played last year and am curious how a full season of Wily Mo and Lastings Milledge will pan out, for both. The Marlins aren't really trying, so they might win 24 games this year.

NL CENTRAL

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Houston Astros
5. St. Louis Cardinals
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

This is going to play out pretty much exactly like last year. The Cubs and Brewers will be the best two teams in a dreadful division, but neither will be good enough to break away and one will win the division with 82-85 wins and the other will go home - and it will probably be the Cubs again. Both have shaky rotations, but Zambrano is the best of the bunch and Sheets will miss two months somewhere along the way. The bullpens are both shaky - Kerry Wood has to prove he's healthy and can close, and basically Eric Gagne absolutely ROBBED the Brewers of $10 million for this year because he doesn't have it anymore. The lineups are both pretty good - and I LOVE Milwaukee's combo of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Corey Hart. But in case you forgot over the space of the last sentence, Eric Gagne is the Brewers closer. No really, that's important - during the offseason someone informed me that Eric Gagne had gotten a one year, $10 million contract and I said, haha, no way, it has to be a two year deal. It isn't. I can't tell you how shocked I am to this day. As for the rest, Cincy is probably easily the third best team in the division, in a weird limbo between good (I use "good" loosely concerning the Cubs and Brewers) and bad (Astros) and ugly (Cardinals and Pirates). This is probably the year the Astros trade Oswalt, which will effectively kill anything they had left in the tank. Once Pujols blows out his elbow, the Cardinals will be reduced to a blubbering mess (actually, they already are. Check out their current rotation sometime), and the Pirates called dibs on last place so I gave it to them.

NL WEST

1. Colorado Rockies
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

You'll notice in the first five divisions listed, I gave each one a two team race to work with. The NL West might end up a four team race. Just to get it out of the way, the Giants are going to be bad, end of discussion. The Padres will probably hang on by a thread but not really compete - the starting rotation is good and will keep them around, but the lineup is pretty weak. I imagine the Rockies, Diamondback and Dodgers will duke it out. Should I give the Dodgers more credit for having Torre and a good rotation? Probably. Should I give the Diamondbacks more credit for having Brandon Webb and Dan Haren at the top of their rotation? Probably. Should I deduct points for the Rockies having the weakest rotation in the division? Probably. But I just like them. I really like the lineup, Jeff Francis is servicable and if Jiminez can pitch like he did in the World Series game 2, he'll be a nice addition for the whole year. Call me crazy but when the dust clears, I pick the Rockies. The division will beat the crap out of each other, so no way the wild card comes from anywhere other than the East.

NL Playoff possibles: NY Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres

NL Playoff picks: NY Mets, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies

2007 Playoff teams out: NY Yankees, Anaheim Angels, San Diego Padres
2008 New Playoff teams: Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, NY Mets

AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard, Seattle
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
AL Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, San Diego
NL MVP: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
NL Rookie of the Year: Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee