Nathan's random thoughts

Monday, March 02, 2009

My thoughts on the Matt Cassel deal

This weekend, the Pats traded Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to the Chiefs for a high second round pick (#34). At first glace, it's both a bit shocking and unbalanced, but given more thought and learning of other scenarios, I've decided I'm ok with the deal.

Other scenarios that have been raise include the Pats sending Cassel to Detroit for the #33 pick, and the Pats sending Cassel to the Broncos in a three-team deal for a first rounder, either #12 or #19 (not clear).

It's first important to understand 1) why the Pats tagged Matt Cassel with the francise tag (which guarantees him $14.65 million for next year) and 2) why they traded Mike Vrabel.

The answer to #1, I think, is fairly easy. First of all, there are a number of teams looking for quarterbacks, and instead of letting Cassel walk as a free agent, they retained him (albeit at a very high salary) in order to trade him and get something (anything?) of value back. Second of all, one of those teams is the Jets. By tagging and trading, you can easily avoid Cassel walking across the street to a divisional rival. Given that they went through with trading him within weeks of placing the franchise tag on him and long before the season, is is assumed that there are no potential hang ups with Tom Brady's recovery for next year.

The trade of Mike Vrabel was both curious and surprising. He's been with the team since 2000 and has been an exceptional player on and off the field for the Patriots. Definitely a fan favorite. That being said, he's 34, his sack total dropped from 12.5 to 4 last year, and he counts about $4 million against the cap. On the one hand, the Chiefs probably want a veteran leader for an increasingly inexperienced team. In order to take on Cassel's big contract, they may have demanded the Pats throw something extra in. On another, the Pats may have wanted to dump his salary if they felt his skills were declining. My feeling is that it was probably a combination of both, and in that regard it helps both teams.

It is not insignificant to note that with the trade, the Pats cleared about $18 million in cap space, much of which they had purposely tied up in Cassel, and needed to clear that space sooner than later with free agency starting this weekend. Given Cassel's big contract and the need to move him fast would work against them receiving more, of course.

Factoring in the other trade scenarios - by choosing to send Cassel and Vrabel to KC for the #34 pick instead of just Cassel to Detroit for the #33 pick indicates to me that dumping Vrabel's salary was appealing to them. Not picking up a mid-first round pick is more curious and harder to defend. The contract for that player wouldn't bust your balls like a top-5 pick, and they got a very good player in that range last year (Jerod Mayo). But perhaps they didn't want to pay two first round picks (they also have #23). Also, if they traded him to Denver, he would be playing for the one man who would know exactly how to utilize him best, Josh McDaniels, who was the Patriots offensive co-0rdinator last year and new Denver head coach.

So, for the Patriots, they tagged Cassel, moved him relatively quickly, received the #34 pick in the draft, opened up another ~$3.5 million of cap space by including Vrabel (~$18 million total), and kept him away from the Jets. If you let Cassel walk, you don't have any of those assurances. So in the end, it looks suspect on the surface, but I say good deal.